Technology TransactionsWill The Internet Go Away In Tough Times?
If you believed the predictions of the past few years, by now Internet growth would have caused newspapers to close, malls to empty, computer terminals would have replaced college campuses, and the Postal Service would have gone the way of the Pony Express.
Instead we are seeing something different, a general sorting out of winners and losers, a process accelerated by a national economic slow-down, falling Wall Street valuations, revised quarterly statements, and massive lay-offs in the once high-tech sector.
And yet....
Despite the daily reports of hard times, the fact remains that the Internet has already changed both our society and our economy. In terms of real estate, the impact is impressive and final -- there"s no going back unless much of the populace is willing to give up electricity and phone lines.
Try this quiz and see what you think:
*Remember when consumers did not have direct access to MLS information? Will this change?
*Remember when "good" consumer advice suggested finding mortgage rates from at least three separate sources? How many mortgage rate sites can you find in 30 minutes today?
*Remember when no one had ever heard of such things as "URLs," "newsgroups," or "online registration." How often do you use the Internet in new ways when compared with 10 years ago?
*Remember when you didn"t need to check your e-mail a few times a day? If you were a consumer, would you hire a broker who did not regularly check his or her e-mail?
So, yes, initial predictions from Wall Street and industry consultants were often grossly overblown, but the general idea is correct: The Internet is here, it has importance, and it will be with us in the future.
There are many measures which suggest how the Internet is faring, and one of the most interesting is advertising.
Basically, you want to see lots of ads because the willingness of companies to advertise suggests they have something to sell and also that buyers are ready to purchase. When ad numbers are up it generally means the economy is doing well -- good news for those who buy and sell homes and make loans.
For many years Robert J. Coen, the senior vice president and director of forecasting with Universal McCann, the giant ad agency, has issued twice-yearly reports which show where ad revenues have been and projects where they"re going.
In the June edition of Coen"s Insider"s Report, he estimates that ad spending in 2001 will amount to $249.8 billion for all media -- TV, radio, newspapers, direct mail, etc. Internet ad expenditures -- says Coen -- are expected to rise 10 percent.
A quarter-of-a-trillion dollars for ads is a lot of money, but guess how much will be spent for online ads after that 10 percent increase?
A. $38.4 billion
B. $26.4 billion
C. $12.2 billion
D. $4.8 billion
You win if you picked "D." Internet advertising -- the most-hyped media topic since the Comet Kohoutek -- will be less than 2 percent of all ad spending this year.
But -- and here is the detail to watch -- even though online ads are not a big part of promotional budgets, $4.8 billion is a bunch of money -- more than is spent for national ads in the Yellow pages or on syndicated TV or radio.
At Realty Times we see continued growth with our newsletter products for real estate licensees and mortgage lenders. We also see continued site interest, a by-product of the nation"s strong housing sector.
As an example, there are many ways to measure online traffic. The Internet"s millions of sites can be ranked according to traffic volume by online observers such as Alexa.com -- an independent monitoring service. Here are the Alexa numbers from yesterday, numbers which suggest continuing interest in real estate news. Like golf, the lower the number, the higher the ranking.
Domain
Traffic Ranking
RealtyTimes.com
23,079
IRED.com
32,992
GlobeSt.com
36,062
Inman.com
40,879
RISmedia.com
152,363
Source: Alexa.com
Figures obtained August 21, 2001 via the
Site Popularity Meter
For more articles by Peter G. Miller, please press here.